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NEW! Phase 3 – Scenarios Report (5.3Mb PDF)
This report summarizes a selection of Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common pointThe Okanagan watershedLand area from which water drains towards a common point, or basinLand area from which water drains towards a common point, is a narrow strip that spans from Armstrong, British Columbia, Canada to the US border and includes five main lakes – Okanagan, Kalamalka-Wood, Skaha, Vaseux and Osoyoos – and surrounding mountains.
The Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point includes all the land that feeds water to our big lakes, and is almost 200 km in length and 8,000 km2 in area. Kelowna, Vernon, Penticton and Osoyoos all lie within the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point. water supply and use projections for 2011 to 2040, based on Phase 3 modeling using the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common pointThe Okanagan watershedLand area from which water drains towards a common point, or basinLand area from which water drains towards a common point, is a narrow strip that spans from Armstrong, British Columbia, Canada to the US border and includes five main lakes – Okanagan, Kalamalka-Wood, Skaha, Vaseux and Osoyoos – and surrounding mountains.
The Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point includes all the land that feeds water to our big lakes, and is almost 200 km in length and 8,000 km2 in area. Kelowna, Vernon, Penticton and Osoyoos all lie within the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point. Water Accounting Model (OBWAM) and its supporting models, the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common pointThe Okanagan watershedLand area from which water drains towards a common point, or basinLand area from which water drains towards a common point, is a narrow strip that spans from Armstrong, British Columbia, Canada to the US border and includes five main lakes – Okanagan, Kalamalka-Wood, Skaha, Vaseux and Osoyoos – and surrounding mountains.
The Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point includes all the land that feeds water to our big lakes, and is almost 200 km in length and 8,000 km2 in area. Kelowna, Vernon, Penticton and Osoyoos all lie within the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point. HydrologyThe science dealing with the properties, distribution, and circulation of water Model (OBHM) and the Okanagan Water DemandWater useVolume or rate of water diverted or withdrawn from a water body (eg a stream, lake, or groundwaterWater existing below the ground surface in aquifers aquiferAn underground formation that stores groundwater) for use by humans on the land surface. Actual water use is determined through direct measurement. Water demand is an estimate of actual water use. determined using an estimation approach, such as a model Model (OWDM).
A key outcome of the project is the successful development of Okanagan-specific state-of-the-art computer modeling tools that can simulate future water conditions in the Okanagan, and estimate the influence of climate change and human decisions on water useVolume or rate of water diverted or withdrawn from a water body (eg a stream, lake, or groundwaterWater existing below the ground surface in aquifers aquiferAn underground formation that stores groundwater) for use by humans on the land surface. Actual water use is determined through direct measurement. Water demand is an estimate of actual water use. and stream-flowsThe flow of water in rivers or stream channels.
For the first time, these models provide a way to determine how a decision made in one area of the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common pointThe Okanagan watershedLand area from which water drains towards a common point, or basinLand area from which water drains towards a common point, is a narrow strip that spans from Armstrong, British Columbia, Canada to the US border and includes five main lakes – Okanagan, Kalamalka-Wood, Skaha, Vaseux and Osoyoos – and surrounding mountains.
The Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point includes all the land that feeds water to our big lakes, and is almost 200 km in length and 8,000 km2 in area. Kelowna, Vernon, Penticton and Osoyoos all lie within the Okanagan BasinLand area from which water drains towards a common point. can affect another area of the basinLand area from which water drains towards a common point.
The project includes 15 scenarios of climate change, land use alternatives and population growth – only a small sampling of the range of possible water futures that illustrate the power of this tool.
The work has highlighted the important role – and limitations – of demand management in adapting to climate change, the challenges that face water suppliers in providing reliable supplies into the future, and the importance of proactive decision-making to secure a sustainable water future for the Okanagan.
It also points out knowledge gaps where further research and monitoring are needed.
Scenarios
Some 15 climate, land-use and population growth scenarios were examined. The scenarios considered one of six possible global climate models and the carbon emissions scenario – the emissions scenario considered most likely by the International Panel on Climate Change.
Selecting a different global climate model would produce different results, which will be examined in the next phase of the project.
The scenarios evaluated the influence of:
- Two possible rates of population growth: the expected rate vs. a high rate
- Two possible agricultural conditions: the current amount of land under cultivation vs. a larger area that included all reasonably irrigable land, and
- Two possible trends in water useVolume or rate of water diverted or withdrawn from a water body (eg a stream, lake, or groundwaterWater existing below the ground surface in aquifers aquiferAn underground formation that stores groundwater) for use by humans on the land surface. Actual water use is determined through direct measurement. Water demand is an estimate of actual water use. efficiency: current trends vs. the Provincial guideline of achieving 33% efficiency improvements by 2020
Finally, one of the scenarios simulated the effects of a three-year drought, similar to the historically significant Okanagan drought of 1929-1931.
None of the scenarios are a specific prediction of the future, as it is impossible to predict weather conditions year-to-year.
Funding is now in place to conduct additional scenario modeling and study other possible water futures. Running a range of scenarios will give a wider range of water futures and allow a more accurate estimate of risks.
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